Marc Garneau Quits Liberal Leadership Race

The final obstacle for Justin Trudeau to become the next leader of the Liberal Party of Canada has dropped out of the race, less than a month before ballots are to be cast. Marc Garneau was the only candidate with even a slim chance of upsetting JT, and the only one to really call him out for soft policy positions during the leadership debates. Today's withdrawal paves the way for Justin to win in a landslide, or as Garneau said; "Let’s give to Caesar what belongs to Caesar". I'm not sure if comparing Trudeau to a Roman despot is a genuine compliment, or a thinly veiled departing punch.

It probably would have been better for the party had Garneau stayed in the race until the new leader was announced, to at least give the appearance of a real competition. Without the astronaut, the "race" is essentially just another coronation. Yes, Martha Hall Findlay is still slugging away, but that hardly counts for anything. The only one who could have presented JT with a real challenge is Bob Rae, but Party brass made sure that wasn't going to happen. It would have been interesting (if not entertaining) to see Bobby debate Justin with both fighting to become Prime Minister, but that's not going to happen.

Trudeau's victory was all but certain even before today's news, with polling continuing to show that if he were the leader, the Liberals would be in a position to win a majority government. Many of those new votes would be coming at the expense of the NDP. Granted, this is polling done before Trudeau has sat even a day as party leader. His fortunes might not be so bright when he's finally put under a microscope. We're talking about somebody with a temper who has had some entertaining outbursts on Parliament Hill, which you can bet we'll be watching over and over again on television commercials over the next 2 years.

It will be interesting to see how this all unfolds. The interesting part will be what strategy Tom Mulcair adopts to keep all those old Bloc seats in Quebec. If they are not careful, the NDP is at risk of getting decimated in the next general election, which would be embarrassing for Mulcair. Good luck Tom, you're going to need it!

NDP MP Defects To The Bloc Quebecois

A Member of Parliament for the federal NDP defected Thursday to the Bloc Quebecois because he disagrees with new language regarding sovereignty in a recently tabled NDP bill, "the Unity Bill". This defection should not come as a surprise to anyone. The biggest surprise is that there have not been more of these, given that the Dippers ostensibly absorbed a big chunk of the Bloc's voters in the last election, propelling them into official Opposition status. How were they able to attract so many Bloc voters? Part of it had to do with how much people liked Jack Layton, and some of it had to do with the NDP selecting a number of candidates who had previously held membership in the sovereignty movement.

Appeasing the new separatist wing of the NDP was always going to be a delicate balancing act for leader Tomas Mulcair, as he tries to sell his party as a federalist option, both inside and outside Quebec. There would inevitably be people upset if he tilted too far in either direction. Theoretically, this was a no win position from the very beginning. The best idea would have been to postpone making any firm commitment to either side of the debate, instead of going forward with a "Unity Bill". The concern is not only will he lose more MPs, but that wave of new voters they received in the last election may swing back towards the Bloc.

More than anything else, this brewing controversy will give Trudeau a nice big target to attack Mulcair when Justin becomes Liberal leader. We are two years away from the next federal election, leaving plenty of time for this fight to play out. Mulcair kind of finds himself running in quicksand right now. The harder he tries to get out, the deeper he's gonna sink. Has the damage already been done, or can he just go mute on this issue and hope people forget? He has to be careful, since he does not have the "lovable" personality of Jack Layton; who could just praise the so-called "Sherbrooke Declaration" without stepping in the quicksand.

Mulcair risks losing both the nationalists and the separatists. I'll admit, this whole fiasco is probably better news for the Liberals than the Conservatives. Justin Trudeau will soon be the leader of the Liberal Party. Guaranteed he's going to attack this "Unity bill", at least within Quebec. At this point, it is difficult to predict exactly how much this will affect the next election, but right now, the outlook is not good.

2013 The Year Of Trudeau

As the Liberal Party prepares to begin it's latest leadership race, polls show that Justin Trudeau could win a majority government in the next election if he is crowned leader. This all but guarantees his coronation this spring. The other leadership candidates would be advised not to borrow too much money in a futile race with an all but certain outcome. While I might have trouble believing these polling results, their mere existence will unquestionably be enough to put Justin over the top. He'll get the lion's share of the media spotlight for the foreseeable future, probably more than NDP leader Thomas Mulcair.

It would be interesting to know what proportion of these 40% of Canadians who would vote for a Trudeau led Liberal Party are saying so just on the nostalgia of name recognition, and how many have actually been following Justin's career in parliament? Many of us who have been following his career in the House of Commons closely have unfavourable opinions of the kid. He has a temper, a tendency to speak of himself in the third person, and he holds policy positions that are farther to the left than most viable candidates. If he had a dog named Kyoto, it wouldn't surprise me.

How will Thomas Mulcair handle a Trudeau victory? The two will never need to work together to collapse the government, since we have a majority and the next election will be on Stephen Harper's terms. There is no question that a resurgence of the Liberal Party will take a giant bite out of the NDP caucus, and one assumes that Mr. Mulcair would indeed like to become Prime Minister. Does Tommy Boy play nice, or does Tom play to win? Your guess is as good as mine.

In the meantime, I'm assigning a 95% probability that Justin Trudeau will be the next leader of the Liberal Party. Who wins the next federal election? That is still too far away to start making predictions.

Justin Trudeau; There Will Be No Rematch

Having defied the expectations of many partisans and non partisans alike, pulling off an upset in a charity boxing match against Senator Brazeau, Justin Trudeau will not allow his opponent an opportunity to redeem himself. He's done. Retiring on top. Given that Justin proclaimed his victory to be a symbolic representation of the fight between Liberals and Conservatives, losing the rematch would itself be ripe with symbolism. As Apollo Creed said to Rocky at the end of the fight in Rocky 1, "there will be no rematch". He probably knows that he was lucky to win, and even though a rematch would likely raise even more money for cancer research that the original fight, he's had enough. It makes sense from a self image perspective. Muhammad Ali won both rematches against Joe Frazier. Lennox Lewis creamed Hollyfield in their rematch. Rocky won the second fight against Creed. If you win, that's basically as good as it is going to get. Who wouldn't want to go out on top instead of risking embarrassment in a rematch?

Is Justin Trudeau retiring from charity boxing because he's preparing a run at the Liberal leadership next year? Today's poll question, why do you think Trudeau is denying his defeated opponent a chance at redemption?

Should Trudeau Run For Liberal Leader?

Today's poll question; would you like to see Justin Trudeau become leader of the Liberal Party? Previously I have endorsed Gerard Kennedy as my favoured "scorched earth" candidate, but he has been overtaken in recent days. There is no doubt in my mind that the Tories would win a second majority if JT led the party into the next election. The assortment of video clips that are piling up in his wake are becoming legendary in a bad way, and will provide priceless material for election ads. The third person references are outstanding and hopefully those will continue.

Realistically the separation fiasco this week has eliminated the likelihood that he runs against Bob Rae in 2013. He has a constituency should he decide to run, and I truly hope he does. Promoting separation as an option if you disagree with the elected government? The fact that he doesn't seem to understand why his words were so toxic, is just further evidence that he's not fit to lead the country, but lead the Liberals, absolutely. He can count on the Iceman's endorsement, because the Iceman also lives Canada in his bones.

Justin Trudeau: Idiot At Best, Separatist At Worst

Today Justin Trudeau told a Quebec radio host that if he thought "Canada was really the Canada of Stephen Harper" that he would consider making Quebec its own country. This is a remarkably dumb thing for a man who sees himself one day running for Prime Minister to say. Clearly this was not something blurted out on a whim like the "piece of sh*t" cat call in Question Period, but rather something "I always say". He's put a lot of thought into it, with the intended strategy of appealing to the Bloc swing voters who elected all those Dippers last May. This might play well on the Quebec left's cocktail circuit and might make him some new friends; but outside the province, he looks like an idiot at best, a separatist at worst.

"I always say that if, at a given time, I believed that Canada was really the Canada of Stephen Harper and that we were going against abortion, that we were going against gay marriage, that we were moving backwards in 10,000 different ways, maybe I would think of wanting to make Quebec a country."

He's going to have this one thrown back in face for the rest of his political career. I'm sure Bob Rae has no intention of instructing Justin to stop saying ridiculous things. Trudeau has a significant base of support to run for Liberal leader whenever he decides to do so, but shit like this piling up doesn't help his chances. Up until now he was probably Rae's biggest threat, and these self inflicted wounds only improve Bobby's chances of capturing the permanent leadership.

Trudeau Wants An Apology?

Justin Trudeau lost his temper in Parliament calling a Conservative Minister a "piece of s**t", and he thinks Peter Kent should apologize. Really??? Yesterday he Tweeted "I used unparliamentary language and apologized. Is Kent going to apologize for chiding the Opp for not being at COP17 -when HE banned us!" Keep talking JT, because you aren't doing your party any favours by dropping expletives in the House of Commons. Justin, you are a piece of s**t and I demand an apology from you for making me so upset that I was left with no choice but to curse at you. You are responsible for my irresponsible behavior! This is all your fault!

Come on man! This is ridiculous. The CBC is defending Justin this morning. They did a segment reading e-mails and the host starts off by saying "instead of focusing on what he said, we should look at why he was upset." Then he only read e-mails with that theme.

Peter Kent "You Are A Piece Of S**t!"

So much for the new era of civility and decorum in Canadian Parliament, as today Justin Trudeau called the Minister of the Environment a "piece of s**t". Smooth move Justin, but it would have been nicer had you just told him to f**k off. On Power Play Justin explained that he's frustrated with the lack of Conservative accountability and just couldn't take it anymore. Right, it is the Tories fault that Justin can't control his temper. Also Justin, you might want to consider shaving the goatee because you look ridiculous, like a cheap retro Bond villain.

Political pundits this afternoon were musing that our parliamentarians need a vacation, despite many opposition members skipping a whole lot of votes in this session. Justin only missed 19 votes to Bob Rae's 46. Even Ruth Ellen Brosseau who famously vacationed in Las Vegas during the last election campaign has only missed one vote in this Parliamentary session. She deserves some credit, because her NDP colleagues account for 6 of the top 9 most absent MPs. 50 Tory MPs missed zero votes.

Liberal Shadow Cabinet

Well Bob Rae did not have much talent to chose from, but today he managed to cobble together a shadow cabinet. With only 33 MPs and 28 spots to fill, just about every MP has a gig (when you include leader, deputy leader, whip, etc). It must be difficult when you have 32 jobs to fill and 33 people to chose from. Cape Breton MP Roger Cuzner is the only one I can find on the outside looking in. None of the posts are interesting or amusing, except maybe Justin Trudeau as the new critic of University and College. That makes sense for Bob to keep potential rivals in low places, though he did name Dominic LeBlanc as Foreign Affairs critic, Bob's old job.

This is not a compelling news story. Does anyone really care about the Liberals anymore?

Who Will Become The Permanent Liberal Leader?

Today's poll question; who will lead the Liberal Party into the next Canadian election. The question is not who should be, but who will be. The Party may very well wait 2 years before naming a permanent leader. Will it be someone not currently sitting in Parliament? Surely the Liberals have to have operatives down in the United States scouring the Ivy Leagues for the next false prophet. I strongly suspect the Liberals who want to wait 2 years to pick a new leader are not the same Liberals who want Bob Rae to become leader. The Liberals who are receptive to a merger with the NDP surely are more likely to support Bob Rae.

I did recently ask in a poll question who should be the interim leader, and your response was:

WHO SHOULD BE THE INTERIM LEADER OF THE LIBERAL PARTY?

Stephane Dion (40%)
Ralph Goodale (17%)
Bob Rae (11%)
Dominic LeBlanc (10%)
Justin Trudeau (8%)
John McCallum (7%)
Scott Brison (3%)

Stephane Dion was not included as an option for the permanent job because there is a 0% chance that the Liberals would follow him into another election. It is more likely that the Party implodes and folds into the NDP, following Jack Layton into the next election. Remember, if 100% of Liberal voters instead voted NDP, Layton would be projected to win about 187 seats. Then again, in 2000 the Alliance + PC vote = 38%. After their merger, the Conservatives scored 29% of the popular vote. There was a migration from the Tory left flank to the Liberals, people like Scott Brison, Keith Martin, and Joe Clark.

Who Should Be Interim Liberal Leader?

Today's poll question; who should be the interim leader of the Liberal Party? Sure, there is not much left in caucus to choose from, but there are a handful of big names remaining. Stephane Dion is the only remaining MP who has won a leadership convention and was overthrown by Ignatieff in an undemocratic bloodless coup. This is just a caretaker role until the Liberals save up enough money to hold a new leadership race, as they haven't even finished paying for the last one. If the Liberals want to merge with the NDP, Bob Rae is the man. If the Liberals want to win back Quebec from the NDP, Justin Trudeau is the man. If the Liberals want to lower expectations with a happy hour superstar, John McCallum is the man.

Personally as a Conservative I think Dominic LeBlanc is the most electable potential leader left in caucus. For a permanent leader, the Liberals may want to consider looking outside caucus, because they don't have much talent left on Parliament hill.

Justin The Barbarian

Today's poll question; is barbaric a good word to use to describe honour killings? Justin Trudeau doesn't seem to think so, in fact he thinks that description is tantamount to cultural discrimination. A practice where family members murder female family members because they have allegedly shamed the family for things like getting raped and wanting a divorce is absolutely barbaric. New Canadians coming from countries where this is acceptable need to see the strongest possible language to make sure they understand that is criminal in this country. I'm not sure who exactly Justin expected to win over by making these statements, but it was clearly ill advised.

All those people who want us to tone down our condemnation of honour killings must have been applauding today...

Bloc Endorsing Thomas Mulcair?

When Chantal Hebert wrote last week that the Bloc and NDP are now "objective allies" in Thomas Mulcair's riding of Outremont and that the Bloc wants Mulcair to win the seat in the next election; what exactly does that entail? So the party dedicated to breaking Canada apart are cheering for Layton's deputy? Are they pulling their candidate in Outremont, or just fielding a weak candidate with little campaign support? Chantal discusses how both the NDP and Bloc want to beat the Liberals in that riding, but is decidedly quiet on details.

In the next election, Mulcair will face a more threatening Liberal foe in the shape of former justice minister Martin Cauchon. But it seems he will once again not have to worry about a strong Bloc challenge.

In the battle to keep Cauchon out of the House of Commons, the Bloc and the NDP are objective allies and the same is also true in the neighbouring riding of Papineau – where Justin Trudeau is seeking re-election.

If the separatists want Muclair to win, what does that say about Tommy boy? They must think he's doing a great job of dividing Canada and breaking up the country. That looks bad on you Tom, even if you are angling to replace your ailing leader.

Christmas: Liberals Need Money

Many of the 2006 Liberal leadership contenders still have not paid back their campaign debt that they spent losing to Stephane Dion, and now Justin Trudeau and Jane Taber are trying to help raise the money. Both Dryden and Kennedy still owe many thousands of dollars, and Trudeau is asking his fans to give money. Forget Haiti or the food bank, what Canadians really need to do to help make this a joyous holiday, don't help the needy, help wealthy failed leadership contenders pay off their debt. Bring Christmas to a community near you buy giving your hard earned money to Ken Dryden. Please? Pretty please?

Hopefully Iggy's 2008 leadership campaign debt is not an issue, which it shouldn't be because he was anointed rather than elected by the rank and file. Curious, if you are able to win the Liberal leadership, are you able to use money donated to the party to pay off campaign debt?  I know that the Liberals are hurting for money in general, I'm just curious to know if Iggy has repaid all his debts. Raising money seems to be a big problem for the Liberals.

Justin Trudeau Coyote Ugly

It pains me to write this, but I applaud Justin Trudeau for sending out his family Christmas card wearing coyote fur. PETA is pissed off, but I hate to say that I appreciate what the Dauphin did in this instance. I don't know that I have ever liked anything that JT has said or done, but I like this. I would never vote for him to become Prime Minister, but I support him wearing the fur of the voracious coyote. Lest we forget, coyotes kill people, birds, and innocent rodents. If JT wants the best quality fur for Canadian Christmas, I would recommend mink.

I liked the Christmas card. That's all I have to say about that...

Justin Trudeau Attacks Fantino, Whom Iggy Courted To Run For Liberals

So Justin Trudeau has a problem with the long policing history of Vaughan Conservative candidate Julian Fantino and is now attacking him in video? I wonder what if anything Justin was saying to his "dear leader" when Iggy was courting Fantino to run for the Liberal Party? As Justin said "we need people in Ottawa who want to protect the Charter of Rights, not tear it down. That’s what’s at stake in this election in Vaughan". Really JT? Did Iggy know what was "at stake" when he tried to get Fantino to run for the Liberal Party? Did the Liberals try and recruit a candidate who wants to shred our constitution?

With just days before the byelection, the Liberals are bringing out all their big guns to try and save the suburban Toronto seat that has been red for 22 years. The Libs have a lot to lose. Statistically given the margin f victory in 2008 the Tories should have less than a 5% chance of picking up the seat. But now that Fantino is running even the polls, the media is calling it the Conservatives riding to lose. Therefor if the Liberals lose, many pundits will try to paint it as a major loss for the Tories when realistically it should have been a completely safe Liberal seat from the start.

The Talented Mr. Trudeau

The Globe and Mail has a feature on Justin Trudeau up today titled "I don't have anything to prove" to try to convince you that he has no ambition on the job of Prime Minister. What do you think is the first major selling point in the article? Justin knows how to fall down the stairs properly without hurting himself, a skill passed down from his father. There's a right way and a wrong way to fall down the stairs. As Prime Minister, he could use his talent to impress world leaders and vault Canada's image on the world stage to unimaginable new places. Instead of bowing to the Saudi King, he can fall down the stairs for him.

One has to wonder what else he picked up from dad?

Dinner With Mark And Justin

For the low low price of just $100 a plate, you too can dine with Justin Trudeau or Mark Holland this month, shockingly tickets are still available. If you are a "Victory Fund Member" you can dine with Mark Holland for just $35, but must still pay full price to dine with the dauphin.

Warning: If you are not a Victory Fund Member but try to sneak us as a Victory Fund Member for dinner with Mark just to get the discount, they will hit you up for an extra $65 at the door. I don't know if "VF fraud" is a big problem at these Liberal fundraisers, but they felt it necessary to put that disclaimer on the ticket page.

"Please note those purchasing VF tickets without being VF donors will be asked for an additional $ 65 at the door". I suppose they have a re-occurring problem with potential donors trying to get a discount at fundraising events.  They will be checking, so consider yourself warned.