Crime Rates On Campaign Signs

Where could someone find statistics on misdemeanor crimes on political campaign signs? I have long noticed a predisposition for vandals to target Tory signs, and in week one of the campaign I have noticed many signs for my local Tory disappearing. Today's poll question, do you have a campaign sign on your front lawn, or maybe the window of your apartment? Does anyone out there have stories about their own signs being vandalized? I know Mike Hinchey ran for city counsel outside Winnipeg in November and this was a daily problem for him as a right wing candidate.

You almost need to treat it as a compliment that the hooligans who vandalize public and private property oppose the Conservatives. It makes me feel better about being a Tory. The vandals are not on my team.

How Safe Is Iggy In Etobicoke Lakeshore?

In the 2008 federal election in Etobicoke Lakeshore, Liberal Leader Ignatieff beat the local Tory 46% to 35%. In Toronto's mayoral election just a few short months ago, Ward 5 went to Rob Ford 56% to Smitherman's 31%. The right wing revolution has taken hold in Etobicoke Lakeshore, and could make Iggy's seat more vulnerable than most people realize. Sure he was not party leader in 2008, and running for Prime Minister has more luster than plain failed leadership contender. It is rare for major party leaders to lose their seats, but Iggy is the most likely of the big 4.

Harper won his seat by 64% in 2008, Layton by 16%, and Duceppe by 32%. Even Stephane Dion won his seat with a 45% margin of victory. Iggy won by 11%. There is no question that Iggy has the most vulnerable seat of any party leader who holds a seat in the commons. It is unlikely he will lose with all the coverage he's getting in the national media, but a blogger can dream, can't he?

Tories Growing Lead

For all the hoopla in the Canadian media about a bad week on the campaign trail for Stephen Harper (described by Craig Oliver as irritated and unenergetic), the latest poll released by Nanos has the Conservatives increasing their lead to 11%. How can 80% of the news coverage report a terrible week for Harper, but the Party's lead actually increases? Is anyone really listening to Jane Taber and friends? Or are they listening and not buying the spin? It is curious how public opinion rarely matches up with conventional punditry. The people are smarter than Craig Oliver gives them credit for. He couldn't really understand why the Tories aren't plummeting in the polls.

I think a lot of Canadians just want a stable majority government. This minority chaos is not endearing to anyone.

Ignatieff To Slash Deficit???

Ignatieff is going to be releasing the Liberal platform on Sunday, and the headline today was that he plans to slash the deficit. What? All I have been hearing from the Liberals are a slew of new spending projects, so I'd like to see some of the programs he intends to cut if he is indeed going to "slash the deficit". Although his plan to eliminate the deficit completely by 2015 seems eerily similar to the timeline put out by Jim Flaherty in the 2011 budget. He probably used Jim's work as a benchmark.

I'd like to see the whole spending plan Liberal plan costed by someone like Kevin Page. How much would Ignatieff have to raise taxes to pay for all those promises while eliminating the deficit? He has to raise more than just corporate taxes, we will need to increase the GST/HST. Has he ruled that out yet? I don't recall. He could always raid the EI fund or slash transfers to the provinces.

Election 2011 Week One Nickname Contest

In the near future I would like to run a webpoll of the most appropriate nickname for week 1 of the 2011 federal election campaign. Something like Media Gone Wild or Running From The Front. Your suggestions are very welcome on short blurbs to recap the 1st week. The CBC: Your Moral Vote Compass. There are many different ways to spin the CBC vote compass telling 3/4 of Canadians they are liberals. CBC Vote Compass: Everybody Love Liberals. CBC Vote Compass: Where Have All The NDP Votes Gone?

Aside from the far far right spectrum placement of the Conservative Party, the other big news item about the CBC vote compass is that an overwhelming majority of NDP supporters take the test and told they are Liberal or Green, even when they stick exactly to the NDP platform. That's a big story.

Iggy's Focus On Families

As week two of the campaign begins, the Liberals are focusing on families. The question is will Ignatieff resonate with Canadian voters on this issue, or whether it will ring hollow. The guy who abandoned his children back in England to move to Boston is suddenly an expert on Canadian family values? By pointing this out, will I be accused of attacking his family? I'm simply wondering out loud if this guy should be a spokesperson on families, because he never seems entirely comfortable around children.

Who Would Win Iggy-Harper Debates?

Who would win a head to head debate between the Prime Minister and the Liberal leader? Robert Fife and some of his ilk have predicted that Iggy would crush him because of his experience in academia, but I disagree. The Liberals are vulnerable on a number of talking points and I think the PM can deliver a knock-out punch. That being said, I understand that when you are winning, the best strategy is to minimize the probability of mistakes. In 1980 Trudeau almost went into hiding and won a majority. Pierre was smart enough to realize that his chances of winning were better if he talked as little as possible. When you are already winning, the downside risk of talking is greater than the upside gain. I would love to see this debate happen and I think Harper would win.

What say you?

Angry Media

So Thursday a reporter with the national gallery snapped at Prime Minister Stephen Harper for not taking more questions per day from Terry Milewski et all who are following him around. Just a reminder guys, the Prime Minister is travelling all over the country to visit as many people as mathematically possible in the next 30+ days, he's still taking your questions, isn't he? This isn't Trudeau circa 1980. This outburst was borderline ridiculous. Was it Copenhagen where Terry Milewski asked the PM a 5 minute question that was a rant with 20 different questions? We aren't always talking about 10 second clips, these things add up. Should the Prime Minister cancel more events to spend a greater amount of time taking questions at the events he's currently attending?

Terry was standing beside the guy who snapped, so I'd like to know if there is any behind the scene footage of what those national reporters were saying amongst themselves prior to the outburst? It is an issue of being on a fast time schedule, not the Prime Minister trying to be less accountable. It was one of the most loaded questions you'll ever see from a mainstream field reporter in an election campaign.

Kelly McParland On CBC Vote Compass

Wednesday Kelly McParland was at his best in the National Post with a piece titled "The “big red tent” for people with no clue" about his latest experience with the CBC vote compass. Evidently if you vote "don't know" or no opinion for all your answers, it says you are most closely aligned to the Liberal Party. The piece is quite entertaining. He also goes beyond the compass to point out fatal flaws in Ignatieff's political reasoning; "So on the one hand Mr. Ignatieff has to criticize the government as “wasteful,” while urging even more spending. He has to denounce it for spending too much, while promising to spend more. And he needs to wrap it all in a promise the Liberals will be “prudent”, even though they won’t cut anything important."

Read the full article.

Why Don't We Have All Inclusive Leaders Debates?

If we want to truly respect the spirit of democracy, we should have one televised debate with the leaders of all 19 parties that ran candidates in the last election. Tens of thousands of people vote for "other" and they are not being represented. I say we either do more one on one debates with the top two parties, or we do debates with every single party. Let's get our Rhinos, our Marxist Leninists, Animal Alliance Environment Voters, Christian Heritage, First People's National, and so on and so forth. 7,000 Canadians voted for 26 Libertarians in 2008. Why isn't Dennis Young in the debates. Would Elizabeth say that Dennis is too small? Why not even more than just her? For all the media attention she's getting, why doesn't anyone ask her that question? If we are going to have the Green Party, why not the Marijuana Party? Is it that the Greens have a bigger budget that they should be allowed to crowd out the smaller players?

Let's allow no one party to ever really be allowed to talk for more than short sound bits in our debates. Maybe the more fringe elements you include the more the debates dilute the messages of the only two parties capable of forming government, but listening to Elizabeth May, you'd think everybody should be there. So screw it, let's have one with everybody. Then do the rest on demand.