tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6573500847704693761.post9048487237101286546..comments2023-07-14T03:26:19.215-07:00Comments on The Iceman: The permutations to a Tory MajorityThe_Icemanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16887740772649135851noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6573500847704693761.post-13364779098840969692009-09-01T15:46:50.984-07:002009-09-01T15:46:50.984-07:00Ooops, just saw that you used "combinations&q...Ooops, just saw that you used "combinations" in the posting.<br /><br />Anwyay, ted, your credibility took a big hit when you speculated about a Liberal win here in Calgary. Their biggest problem is in recruiting high profile candidates. <br /><br />Even in my riding of Calgary West, where Rob Anders is supposedly the "weakest link" in the Tory chain, the Libs could only recruit a disgraced ex School Trustee, who lost by over 21,000 votes.<br /><br />Back in 1997, now mayor (then alderman) Dave Bronconnier ran as a Lib against (then Reformer) Rob, and got his ass kicked by over 9,000 votes. <br /><br />Nobody wants to run for the Libs around here !Calgary Junkiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14036174847335286409noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6573500847704693761.post-7824227558390499922009-09-01T15:30:57.518-07:002009-09-01T15:30:57.518-07:00Well iceman, the answer to your question is "...Well iceman, the answer to your question is "54 choose 12". BTW, it's the number of <i>combinations</i> (where order doesn't matter) that we want, instead of the number of <i>permutations</i> (where order does matter).<br /><br />Anyway, yah it's a huge number, comparable to the number of bridge hands that can be dealt--52 choose 13, or 635,013,559,600.Calgary Junkiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14036174847335286409noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6573500847704693761.post-68858552263758268812009-09-01T15:22:09.195-07:002009-09-01T15:22:09.195-07:00Etobicoke-Lakeshore is not a surprise, the PC'...Etobicoke-Lakeshore is not a surprise, the PC's have held it not that long ago. It is my riding and I would like nothing better than to stamp Iggy's passport, gone.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6573500847704693761.post-14197398647042946712009-09-01T15:18:57.868-07:002009-09-01T15:18:57.868-07:00I've got my own Excel Spreadsheet, and I see s...I've got my own Excel Spreadsheet, and I see some very plausible gains in Anglo-Canada to close the majority gap. I suspect that the turnout will be higher this time around, from the apatheic voters who are against the coalition. <br /><br />Expect the Coalition Question to be asked to most local candidates, which will make this campaign very difficult for Liberal candidates in regions that are not fond of the Lib-NDP-Bloc Coalition. Considering that the CPC need to gain about 10,000 votes in several key ridings, we can expect Harper will hold most of the current seats, if NOT outright win a substantial majority.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6573500847704693761.post-78731924730286622212009-09-01T14:53:02.957-07:002009-09-01T14:53:02.957-07:00Go to the UBC election forecaster.
http://esm.ubc...Go to the UBC election forecaster.<br /><br />http://esm.ubc.ca/CA10/forecast.phpSkinny Dipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12818163310102120130noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6573500847704693761.post-2346682104118948492009-09-01T14:25:53.502-07:002009-09-01T14:25:53.502-07:00um...we won Winnipeg South. Its Rod Bruinooge'...um...we won Winnipeg South. Its Rod Bruinooge's riding...you might mean Winnipeg South Centre, where we have a real chance with a competent candidate this timeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6573500847704693761.post-64316103421314478582009-09-01T14:14:03.807-07:002009-09-01T14:14:03.807-07:00Ted Betts,
To assume that the Liberal Party is r...Ted Betts, <br /><br />To assume that the Liberal Party is rejuvenated and ready to capture the spirit of Canadians is quite pathetic. Tell me one fresh, new and important policy the Liberals have come up with since Ignatieff took over. Our economy is just starting to recover, you think an election brought by the Liberals is going to "inspire" Canadians? Please. <br /><br />And don't even give me that rubbish about winning seats in Alberta and Saskatchewan (besides Wascana). At the current level of Liberal support, I'd say keep on wishing, friend. Keep on wishing. <br /><br />I say 4 years in the wilderness has really made you Liberals lose it. Such a shame.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6573500847704693761.post-48255250704898229852009-09-01T13:44:31.919-07:002009-09-01T13:44:31.919-07:00Yes and his link was rather irrelevant as well, bu...Yes and his link was rather irrelevant as well, but-cha know, if Stephen Harper's name is at the top of a list that creates a negative impression, count on a Liberal to spin it like a top.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6573500847704693761.post-15829243048855007152009-09-01T13:26:25.662-07:002009-09-01T13:26:25.662-07:00I would love to know what seat in Calgary he think...I would love to know what seat in Calgary he thinks is close to a Liberal take over.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6573500847704693761.post-41087469281594639542009-09-01T13:16:02.894-07:002009-09-01T13:16:02.894-07:00I never said it was going to happen, I simply poin...I never said it was going to happen, I simply pointed out how many different ways it could happen. It is simple probability theory. I am not nearly as emotional about it as Mr Ted Betts is. A short movement to the right is far more likely than a big shift to the left. Be pragmatic.The_Icemanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16887740772649135851noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6573500847704693761.post-63971729205113626002009-09-01T13:03:43.751-07:002009-09-01T13:03:43.751-07:00Interesting.
Except for one thing.
You are assum...Interesting.<br /><br />Except for one thing.<br /><br />You are assuming that Harper has the support to maintain what he has today.<br /><br />He doesn't. Not even close. <br /><br />Stephen Harper is governing right now with <a href="http://www2.macleans.ca/2009/08/28/governing-with-consent/#more-78600" rel="nofollow">the weakest voter support in our history</a>. To just assume you can pick 12 ridings and think you can win a majority shows pretty starkly how out of touch y'all have become after just 4 years.<br /><br />All of the Conservative Quebec seats are up for grabs. Same for the GTA, especially parachuted candidates and mediocre performers like Lisa Raitt. Lots of seats up for grabs in BC, Saskatchewan and Manitoba too. Even the Conservative near-hegemony in Alberta is at risk: certainly the NDP seat is at risk to the Liberals but there are other Calgary and Edmonton seats where the Liberals are close.<br /><br />The Conservatives thought it was impossible not to grow their minority governments into a majority in 1926 and 1980 too. <br /><br />Both times they lost out to a rejuvenated Liberal Party that better caught the spirit of Canadians at the time.Ted Bettshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06223729391428982448noreply@blogger.com